Bitcoin price rally to $19,500 prompts analysts to explore what could be next

After Bitcoin (BTC) hit a yearly excessive of $19,501 on Jan. 13, the large query is: the place is it headed now?

Bitcoin is at present experiencing a bullish rally after the constructive Shopper Worth Index (CPI) report was adopted by a powerful upward transfer throughout the whole cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin’s current rally is creating elevated quantity ranges and elevated social engagement on whether or not the worth is in a breakout or false breakout mode.

Is the Bitcoin bear market over?

Though the market continues to be technically bearish in comparison with final week, investor sentiment is enhancing. In accordance with the Worry and Greed Index (a cryptocurrency-specific metric that measures investor stance utilizing 5 weighted sources) sentiment in direction of the market hit a month-to-month excessive.

Bitcoin Worry and Greed index. Supply: different.me

The Bitcoin value is approaching the psychologically necessary $20,000 stage and lots of analysts and merchants are casting their opinions on the place the BTC value may go subsequent.

Let’s take a look at a few of these views.

Bitcoin commerce quantity stays worrisome

The Bitcoin value has but to get better from its pre-FTX crash ranges, however it did break above $19,501 on Jan. 13 for the primary time since Nov. 8, 2022. Regardless of the power of the current rally, some Analysts imagine that the BTC value wants to succeed in $21,000 earlier than the present uptrend may be sustained.

In accordance with Glassnode’s evaluation:

“A renewed uptrend that began on January 1 introduced Bitcoin to the $18,600-$18,900 stage, nonetheless, it’s essential to cross $19,000 to ascertain a brand new buying and selling channel round $19,000-21,000. Resistance is anticipated round these ranges as Bitcoin faces a downtrend within the medium time period. If the worth fails to interrupt above the pattern line, we count on a pullback in direction of the $16,000-$17,000 zone.”

Bitcoin value in comparison with its quantity. Supply: Glassnode

The shortage of commerce quantity round $18,000 reveals the weak point of present exercise on-chain and on centralized exchanges (CEXs). The upper volumes and common exercise appears to be across the $16,000 stage, which means that it’s a extra strong backside than the present value vary. With much less quantity across the above $20,000 ranges, Bitcoin’s rally may very well be capped at $20,000.

Is it simply one other bear market rally?

Bitcoin continues to face headwinds, together with mass layoffs in an more and more troublesome macroeconomic atmosphere, authorized troubles at Gemini and Genesis, and the doable creation of a cryptocurrency-focused subcommittee by the US Home of Representatives.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s RSI is at present displaying the cryptocurrency as overbought. Primarily based on RSI evaluation, a powerful downtrend may kind as the worth corrects.

Bitcoin RSI. Supply: TradingView

Macroeconomic markets are additionally at necessary resistance ranges. The US Greenback Index (DXY) is at key help, which means threat belongings like Bitcoin may begin to see steep promoting if the index recovers. Bitcoin continues to be correlated to the inventory market and the mini SPX index futures can be displaying indicators of reversal.

As TraderSZ defined:

With Bitcoin buyers taking revenue as TraderSZ suggests, it could be troublesome for BTC to succeed in larger ranges.

Historic Evaluation Factors to a New Bitcoin Low

Bitcoin is at present under its 200-week transferring common and based on unbiased market analyst Rekt Capital, the worth of Bitcoin could have already hit its macro backside based mostly on historic knowledge. Traditionally, the “cross of dying” stage reveals a low of $23,500.

Though merchants and technical analysts aren’t recognized for precisely predicting how lengthy a bull or bear market may final, unbiased analyst HornHairs cited historic knowledge from 2015 to estimate how lengthy it would take for Bitcoin to hit a brand new all-time excessive.

The bull market from 2015 to 2017 lasted 1,064 days, coinciding with the bull market from 2018 to 2021 that lasted the identical variety of days. If merchants equate the bear market that adopted from 2017 to 2018 to 2021 with the present market, it would take 1,001 days for Bitcoin to succeed in a brand new all-time excessive.

Regardless of the present circumstances and the power of the present value breakout, Bitcoin has confirmed many technical analysts mistaken up to now. Threat-averse merchants may contemplate looking ahead to larger buying and selling quantity at larger costs as an indicator of whether or not Bitcoin is lastly again in a bull market.

The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely these of the authors and don’t essentially replicate or characterize the views and opinions of BoxNews.

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